Iran is preparing to launch an attack on Israel in response to recent strikes on Iranian military sites, using more powerful warheads and “other weapons” not previously deployed, Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plans told The Wall Street Journal on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Iran’s president indicated that a potential ceasefire between Israel and its allies Hamas and Hezbollah “could affect the intensity” of Tehran’s threatened attack.
Iranian leaders have warned of a “punishing” reprisal against Israel for a series of retaliatory strikes on October 26. These strikes were themselves a reaction to a massive Iranian ballistic missile attack that Jerusalem claims knocked out the Islamic Republic’s air defenses and missile production capabilities. Reports suggest the response could occur as soon as this week.
An Egyptian official told The Journal that Tehran warned Cairo privately of a “strong and complex” response to Israel.
An Iranian official reportedly stated that, because its military lost four soldiers and a civilian, there is a necessity to respond.
The report noted that Iran’s military will be involved in the operation, marking a change from the April 13-14 and October 1 missile attacks carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The official said the attack would target Israeli military sites “much more aggressively than last time,” and Iraqi territory might be used to launch projectiles.
However, according to state news agency IRNA, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated: “If [the Israelis] reconsider their behavior, accept a ceasefire, and stop massacring the oppressed and innocent people of the region, it could affect the intensity and type of our response.” He added that Iran “will not leave unanswered any aggression against its sovereignty and security,” according to the news agency.
On Thursday, senior White House aides Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein were in Israel for talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior officials about conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both backed by Iran.
The meetings focused on efforts to secure a 60-day ceasefire deal in Lebanon and to assess new proposals by mediators to free Israeli hostages being held in Gaza, according to a US official familiar with the talks who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly.
With the US election on Tuesday and significant differences remaining, hopes for immediate progress appeared slim.
Nonetheless, Israel’s Channel 12 news quoted an unnamed official on Sunday saying a deal to end the conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon could be inked within two weeks.
On Wednesday, the Kan public broadcaster published details of what it said was a draft agreement by the US for a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel seeks a deal to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which forbids Hezbollah from maintaining a presence south of the Litani River. However, Jerusalem reportedly also wants the ability to re-engage the terror group in southern Lebanon if it feels threatened. Israel said the October 26 airstrikes on Iran were in retaliation for Tehran firing some 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1, causing most of the population to seek shelter. Tehran’s attack caused relatively minor damage to military bases and some residential areas and killed a Palestinian man in the West Bank. Iran claimed its attack was in response to the killing of Iran-backed terror group leaders and an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander.
Since last month’s strikes, Israel and the US have warned Iran against retaliating, but Sunday’s comments appeared to be the first public statement since the October 26 attack showing Iran might be willing to back down.
Pezeshkian is considered more moderate than hardliners within the powerful IRGC, who are said to be pushing for a stronger response.
On Saturday, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in all state matters, said the Islamic Republic would indeed retaliate.
“The enemies, both the USA and the Zionist regime, should know that they will definitely receive a tooth-breaking response to what they are doing against Iran, the Iranian nation, and the resistance front,” Khamenei said in a speech to students in Tehran.
He was referring to the alliance of Tehran-backed armed groups that include Yemen’s Houthi rebels, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, and Shiite militias in Iraq.
Reports have nonetheless suggested that Iran may be calibrating its response to limit any potential blowback from Israel. Initially, the country downplayed the extent of the damage from the Israeli strikes, with its armed forces saying the attack killed four military personnel and caused “limited damage” to a few radar systems.
The 85-year-old Khamenei had taken a more cautious approach in earlier remarks, saying officials would weigh Iran’s response and that Israel’s attack “should not be exaggerated nor downplayed.” But efforts to downplay the Israeli attack faltered as satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press showed damage to military bases near Tehran linked to the country’s ballistic missile program, as well as at a Revolutionary Guard base used in satellite launches.
A New York Times report last week cited sources familiar with Tehran’s thinking, indicating Khamenei felt compelled to order a reprisal due to the scale of the damage from the multi-hour assault.
On Thursday, Netanyahu said the strikes on Iranian air defenses had enabled Israel to overfly anywhere in Iran.
Iranians in various cities nationwide took to the streets against Israel and the US in state-organized rallies on Sunday to mark the anniversary of the takeover of the American embassy following the 1979 revolution, state television showed.
In Tehran, thousands gathered at the former US Embassy gates, chanting “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” Some burned flags of the countries and effigies of Netanyahu.
They also carried images of former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, both killed by Israel in recent weeks. The crowd chanted their readiness to defend the Palestinians.
Speaking in the capital, IRGC head Gen. Hossein Salami echoed Khamenei’s threats from a day earlier.
“The resistance front and Iran will equip themselves with whatever is necessary to confront and defeat the enemy,” he said.
AP contributed to this report.
